Democratic Presidential Primary Update

03.08.2016

Clinton Wins in Mississippi - Michigan Results

Democratic nominee for President, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton keeps piling up huge wins in the South, taking Mississippi with about 80% of the vote on Tuesday. Secretary Clinton has a small pledged delegate lead, 676-476 over her only rival, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Clinton's "soft" delegate lead, which factors in "super-delegates", meaning the Democratic party's elected officials and DNC members, Clinton's delegate lead goes to 1,147-498. Sanders' supporters have been very vocal about their opposition to the super-delegate system. Many people feel it is wrong for the super-delegates of a state to be pledged to Clinton, especially if that state's popular vote went to Sanders.

In Michigan, with 73% of precincts reporting, Senator Sanders is maintaining a slim 50.9-47.1% lead. This outpaces lots of polling, but is at least within the margin of error in a late Michigan State University poll, circulated by the Bernie Sanders campaign, showing Clinton up 52-47%. If Sanders can keep this up with similar performances in states like Michigan, such as Ohio, Illinois and Missouri, he can seriously give Clinton a run for her money in March.

Looking past the March 8th contests of Michigan and Mississippi, the contests come fast for Clinton and Sanders. On March 15th the states of Ohio, Florida, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina all have their primaries. According to RealClearPolitics, the Chicago Tribune has Clinton +42 in Illinois, SurveyUSA has Clinton +31 in Florida, and PPP (D) has Clinton +21 in Ohio. Senator Sanders has been outpacing polls in some of these states, like Michigan, but he will have to win in at least two of these states to compete with Clinton for delegates and momentum.

After this yuge! contest on March 15th, the state of Arizona has a primary and the states of Idaho and Utah caucus on March 22nd. Four days later, on March 26th Alaska, Hawaii and Washington all have their caucuses. After that there is a small lull in the action, with Wisconsin and Wyoming in early April, the New York primary on April 19th, then a large bloc of Mid-Atlantic states on April 26th.

Let's analyze this calendar for Senator Sanders. Assuming he gains momentum with a win in Michigan, he goes into March 15th with some headwind. He needs to outpace polls again and somehow get more delegates from March 15th than Secretary Clinton. Then, the calendar works in his favor. He should be able to win in the caucus states of Alaska, Idaho, Hawaii, Utah and Washington. The more momentum he gets through March 15th, the better he can do in these states. Wisconsin has always been big for Bernie, and polling has shown him with a small lead. Wyoming is another caucus state. If Senator Sanders can manage to at least tie on March 15th, the next seven contests could give him a lot of momentum going into April.

Clinton will have a significant advantage in New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Delaware, all of the states that vote at the end of April. It will once again be one of those "make or break" days for Senator Sanders. He has to at least beat Clinton in pledged delegates to have an argument at the convention for his nomination. That means WINNING states, and winning big in some of them. This can happen with enough momentum.

The Ides of March are upon us.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

03/07/2016

WALDO COUNTY DEMOCRATIC COMMITTEE

Unofficial Results of March 6th Democratic Caucus

Town/City Name; Clinton delegates - Sanders delegates elected:

Belmont; 0-2

Belfast; 7-17

Burnham; 1-1

Brooks; 0-2

Frankfort; 1-2

Freedom; 0-2

Islesboro; 1-2

Jackson; 0-1

Knox; 0-1

Liberty; 1-2

Lincolnville; 2-6

Monroe; 0-3

Montville; 0-3

Morrill; 1-1

Northport; 2-3

Palermo; 1-2

Prospect; 1-1

Searsmont; 2-2

Searsport; 2-5

Stockton Springs; 1-4

Swanville; 0-3

Thorndike; 0-2

Troy; 1-1

Unity; 1-3

Waldo; 0-2

Winterport; 3-5

These are unofficial results, some have NOT been reported to the state party yet, namely Frankfort and Waldo. Of 106 total delegates allocated to Waldo County, Secretary Clinton took 28, while Senator Sanders took 78, which means that Senator Sanders took 73.6% of the total delegates in Waldo County, while Secretary Clinton took 26.4%.

Waldo County Chair and Belfast City Councilor Neal Harkness told me that he wouldn't be surprised if Sanders won big in Waldo County, but I don't think either of us expected it to be THIS big. The unfortunate thing is that a lot of the people who voted for Sanders in the caucuses in Maine will probably not get involved in their local Democratic county committees. Senator Sanders has inspired a lot of people who were otherwise uninvolved in the political process to get out and CAUCUS and, as Democrats, I think we should do everything in our power to welcome them into our party. Republicans have been schooling us in local and state elections. Maine Senate Majority Leader Thibodeau (R-Winterport), Representative James Gillway (R-Searsport) and Representative Mary Anne Kinney (R-Knox) should all be unseated, and Democrats have great candidates in all of those districts. Jonathan Fulford (D-Monroe) is running against Sen. Michael Thibodeau for Maine's 11th Senate District, while April Turner (D-Freedom) is running against Rep. Kinney and Scott Cuddy (D-Winterport) is running against Rep. Gillway.

While I am happy that we have managed to field these candidates, a few months ago it wasn't looking good for Democrats in Waldo County. These candidates declared late, and for the Waldo County Democrats to remain relevant we need to be recruiting candidates across the county not only for state office, but for city, town and schoolboard positions as well. Meredith Ares, a loyal Democrat and true friend, recently lost an election in Searsport for town selectmen, right in my backyard! Only 115 people got out to vote for Ms. Ares in the March 1st election, while there's about 450 registered Democrats in Searsport. That's an election we could win! I want the Waldo County Democratic Committee to be a force that can help candidates like Ms. Ares win in Searsport and be positive influence in elections across the county. I believe this means new leadership! Too long have the Waldo County Democrats been stuck in the past. We can barely make enough money to hold the office month to month! I would instead like to be worried about where we are spending our money. There are enough Democrats in Waldo County to have a well-funded Democratic committee, and we have an experienced Treasurer in Betty Johnson that could handle it!

I want the WCDC (Waldo County Democratic Committee) to come into the 21st century. This means a website that is independent of Facebook, Wordpress or Blogger. This means delegating responsibilities to make people feel valued, and involved. This means a fundraising plan of action that will incorporate direct mail, email, social media and seasonal public fundraisers, and a budget plan to match! This also means new leadership in the county committee itself. We need to work together to create a vision for what we, as Democrats, want the WCDC to be. I hear a lot of Sanders voters say they are unhappy with the Democratic establishment, and my answer to that is "THEN CHANGE IT!" If you don't like the platform of the Democratic party, come to a county committee meeting! Change the establishment in Maine! Run for office! Get involved! Become a county committee member and run for chair!

In the county committee by-laws, we used to have a Campaign Committee and a Fundraising Committee. It would be awesome, to me, if we could start these committees again, help Betty Johnson, the WCDC Treasurer, keep the finances of our committee in the black, and at the same time help recruit Democratic candidates for local and state office.

Please, get involved! We can only do this together! And to donate to the WCDC click here:

DONATE TO WALDO COUNTY DEMOCRATS

The unofficial caucus results and corresponding editorial was written by Matthew Hogan, Vice-Chair of the Waldo County Democratic Committee and Chair of the Searsport Democratic Town Committee

BELFAST FOR BERNIE PRESS RELEASE

February 21st, 2016

The Belfast for Bernie group is holding phone banks supporting Bernie Sanders Monday & Wednesday from 5-8pm at the Waldo County Democratic Committee office, 22 Searsport Avenue, Belfast, ME 04915. We are also recruiting volunteers for canvassing shifts out of Belfast on the one remaining weekend we have left before caucus, and then for a four day GOTV period, March 2nd - March 5th. Contact Matthew Hogan @ mainewcdc@gmail.com or call at 207-505-1594

We also need to raise money for the Waldo County Democratic Committee to keep rent up through March and April. We will plan a fundraiser after caucus, but we need money now! We are asking caucus chairs to pass the hat for the county committee at caucus, but we would like to raise at least enough for March before then. It is only $240 a month for the office space we rent, and Betty Johnson, Treasurer of the MDP and Waldo County Commissioner, has been encouraging dedicated Dems to make a monthly contribution. If 24-25 of us give $10 a month, that's all we need to keep the office.

Click Here to Donate to the Waldo County Democratic Committee